Kalman Ratings and Predictions for NCAA Basketball

Kalman ratings for national teams based on FIBA competition data from 1935 to 2026 are presented below. For on-going competitions, also the predicted winning probabilities and standings are presented. The underlying mathematical model is described in detail HERE and HERE.

Please note that the search box allows selections such as “Oklahoma State”, “ACC”, “Top 10”, “Top 10 Conferences”, or “March Madness”.

Kalman Ratings for Selected Teams

RankKalman ratingTeamWin–lossLatest game


This is a work in progress. Please let me know, if you notice problems or if you have ideas for improvements.

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Kalman Ratings and Predictions for European Club Competitions

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Kalman Ratings and Predictions for FIBA Competitions